Money Matters: 

If you’ve ever walked out of the grocery store wondering how that bag of food cost that much, you’re not imagining things.

You didn’t suddenly start buying truffle oil or imported olives.
Your kids didn’t secretly switch from goldfish crackers to caviar.
And yet somehow, the total is up again.

What’s happening is quieter than inflation headlines and louder than your receipt.

Boxes are smaller. Packages are lighter. Prices creep up in ways that don’t trip alarm bells until the checkout screen does that long, dramatic pause.

This matters now because groceries aren’t optional spending for a family of four.
You can delay a phone upgrade. You can skip a vacation. You can’t skip dinner.

Today’s issue explains what’s really going on and how to push back without becoming a coupon monk.

Survey says: 

• The average grocery bill is up about 25–30% compared to four years ago.
  That’s not one bad week - that’s the baseline resetting for most families.

• Package sizes for common snacks and staples are down 5–15%.
  You’re paying more per ounce even when the sticker price looks familiar.

• Households with kids feel food inflation more than any other group.
  Snacks, school lunches, and “we’re hungry again” moments multiply fast.

• Shoppers report buying the same items but fewer extras.
  The feeling of “we didn’t even get much” is backed up by data.

Inside Today’s Issue:

🛒 Why grocery prices keep rising even when nothing seems different
🍬 The sneaky role of snacks, staples, and “fill-in” trips
🥊 How to fight shrinkflation and save your food budget
🤷‍♀️ What’s up for next week

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Worth Your Time

Our favorite resources

👁️Keep a Look Out!

Shrinkflation Examples: Products That Got Smaller in 2025 - See real, name-brand products that got smaller in 2025 - same price, less inside.

👀ICYMI

Check out this issue to save more money on your grocery store trips: The Secret Shopping Hack That Saves Families $30 Every Grocery Trip

📜Quote

“Sooner or later, it all comes down to bullshit.” - George Carlin

Today’s Main Event

Shrinkflation: The Leprechaun Eating Your Groceries 

Shrinkflation.

It’s like your grocery cart is being pickpocketed by a leprechaun with the munchies.

Not bad luck. Not bad budgeting. Just structural.

1. Prices Went Up - Then They Never Came Back Down

When food costs jumped a few years ago, it was blamed on supply chains, fuel, labor, and global chaos.

All of that was real.

What didn’t happen afterward was the rollback. Once companies reset prices higher, they tend to stay there. Even when costs stabilize, prices rarely return to old levels.

For a family of four, this means:

• The “normal” weekly grocery run now starts from a higher baseline.

• Budget categories that used to have wiggle room don’t anymore.

• You feel squeezed even when you’re being careful.

This isn’t a temporary spike. It’s the new floor.

2. Shrinkflation Didn’t Cost the Most - But It Did the Most Damage

Shrinkflation is when the price stays the same, but the product quietly gets smaller.

It’s harder to notice because:

• The box looks the same

• The brand is familiar

• The price tag didn’t jump overnight

Nothing triggers alarm bells.

But over time:

• Cereal boxes hold fewer bowls

• Snack packs empty faster

• Paper products don’t last the week

You don’t feel it at the register. You feel it when you’re back at the store sooner than expected.

For families, that’s the real damage:

• You pay more per unit, even if the shelf price looks unchanged

• You replace staples more often, without realizing why

And that leads to the budget killer nobody plans for: the fill-in trip.

One extra stop for “just a few things.” No list. No plan. No restraint.

That’s where grocery budgets quietly bleed out - not because you’re buying more, but because you’re being sent back more often.

3. Snacks Are the Silent Budget Killer

Meals get planned. Snacks just… happen.

For kids, snacks are:

• After school

• Before sports

• After sports

• Somehow also before dinner

Snack foods are also where shrinkflation shows up first.

Smaller packages + higher prices + frequent replenishment = a category that balloons without looking dramatic.

This is why families often say, “We didn’t even buy real food,” and yet the bill is high.

You did buy food. You bought snack food - and the math on that changed.

4. Household Staples Are Less Predictable Now

Things like:

• Laundry detergent

• Paper towels

• Dish soap

• Trash bags

Used to be boring budget items.

Now they’re inconsistent:

• Concentrations change.

• Counts fluctuate.

• “New and improved” usually means “smaller.”

You can’t rely on memory anymore. Last month’s price is no longer a trustworthy reference.

This forces families into reactive shopping instead of planned shopping - which costs more.

5. Why It Feels Like You’re Failing (Even When You’re Not)

Your brain expects:

• Same store

• Same items

• Same routine

• Same cost

But the system changed while your habits stayed the same.

That mismatch creates guilt:

• “We should be better at this.”

• “Other people must have figured it out.”

• “We’re doing something wrong.”

You’re not.

They changed the rules on you, and now the updated manual costs more and has fewer pages.

Clear takeaway:

Your grocery bill isn’t high because you’re careless.

It’s high because prices rose, sizes shrank, and families absorbed the difference.

Understanding that doesn’t magically lower costs but it does give you leverage.

Now let’s talk about agency and how you can punt the shrinkflation leprechaun out of your shopping aisle.

How to Reduce the Damage Without Burning Out

This isn’t about extreme frugality or turning grocery shopping into a second job.

It’s about changing how you play the game now that the rules have changed.

1. Shop by Unit Price, Not Shelf Price

Ignore the big number. Look at the tiny one.

• Price per ounce, per pound, or per count is the only number that matters

• Shrinkflation hides in packaging, not pricing

• The “cheapest-looking” item often isn’t

Habit to adopt: If the unit price isn’t visible, don’t buy it.

2. Break Brand Loyalty (At Least for Staples)

Brand loyalty used to buy consistency.
Now it buys you higher prices.

• Store brands often come from the same manufacturers

• National brands are more aggressive with size cuts

• Staples care about performance, not branding

Start here: Paper goods, canned foods, baking items, dairy, frozen basics.

3. Assign Stores a Job

No store is cheapest at everything anymore.

Pick 2–3 stores and give them roles:

• One for staples

• One for produce/meat

• One for fill-ins

This beats one giant trip where you overpay across the board.

4. Replace “Snack Products” with Snack Ingredients

Shrinkflation is brutal in kid snacks.

Instead of cutting snacks:

• Buy popcorn kernels, not bags

• Yogurt tubs, not single-serves

• Cheese blocks, not sticks

Same calories. Less markup.

5. Treat New Packaging as a Warning Label

When a box changes shape, color, or claims it’s “new and improved”:

• Check the size

• Check the unit price

• Assume something changed — because it did

Rule: New box = re-evaluate from scratch.

6. Stock Non-Perishables in Small Batches

You don’t need a bunker. You need a buffer.

• Buy 2–3 months of household staples when prices dip

• Freeze meat when it’s actually on sale

• Avoid emergency fill-in trips

Don’t fall for the candy!

That fill-in trip is the unmarked white van for your grocery budget.

The Bottom Line

Shrinkflation isn’t about luck.

It’s about leverage.

You don’t beat it by shopping harder - you beat it by shopping differently.

Until Next Time

What’s Up Next Week

Today we learned about shrinkflation, badly behaved grocery store leprechauns, and why a solid plan plus steel-toed punting boots are now part of responsible budgeting.

Next week, we’ll tackle another everyday money leak that feels harmless… until it isn’t.

If this issue made you feel a little less crazy, consider sharing it with another parent who’s stared at a grocery receipt in silence.

And if you’ve found a strategy that’s actually working for your family, hit reply - those real-world wins help shape what we cover next.

Until next time,

Jim & the MoneyHoot Team 🦉

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.